By the end of 2018, in total more than 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) and around 7 GW onshore wind capacity have been installed in Turkey, representing around 14% of Turkey’s total installed electricity generation capacity. The combined electricity generation from solar PV and onshore wind supplied just below 10% of Turkey’s total annual demand for electricity in 2018. SHURA’s grid integration study shows that tripling the planned wind and solar capacity to 60 GW by 2026 (supplying 30% of Turkey’s total electricity demand and half of the total demand including other renewables) is possible, but integrating this capacity would require a more flexible power system by introducing options such as more flexible coal-fi red power plants, demand response or energy storage.
The combined additional cost of the portfolio of selected flexibility options ranges from as low as 1.7 Euro to as high as 3.4 Euro per MWh, i.e. equivalent to 4.5%-8.9% of the weighted average of short run marginal cost of the system in 2026. Adding up the benefits of each option would save between 1.3 Euro and 1.5 Euro per MWh, equivalent to 3.5%-4.0% of the weighted average of short run marginal costs. To deploy these flexibility options policy mechanisms that consider different requirements of flexibility options as well as a market design that allows competition to arrive at the cost-optimum system flexibility will be needed.
Based on the findings of this study, the following five recommendations are identified for consideration of energy planners, grid operators, market regulators and the energy industry of Turkey:
- Develop a comprehensive grid integration plan for wind and solar based on a geographically elaborated strategy to balance supply and demand and by increasing system flexibility.
- Create a regulatory framework and develop supporting policy mechanisms that reflect the value of flexibility to provide adequate incentives for making use of available flexibility options and investing in new ones. In this respect, the essential instruments are transparent short-term and balancing markets.
- Implement early opportunities with low cost which can provide rapid response ability for increasing system flexibility requirements.
- Identify and overcome barriers related to demand response given its attractiveness.
- Develop a plan for battery storage by analysing its value and role for different technologies at stages of higher wind and solar shares in detail.