Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are on the rise thanks to policies that address the development of different types of EVs and the rollout of charging infrastructure. By the end of 2018, the total number of EVs in the global vehicle stock exceeded 5 million with a similar number of charging stations in place. Projections show that the total number of EVs worldwide could increase to between 120 and 250 million by 2030.
In this study, carried out by SHURA Enerji Dönüşümü Merkezi the “High Growth” market scenario takes the total number of passenger vehicle EVs in Turkey’s total stock to more than 2.5 million by 2030. To estimate the distribution grid impact between 2018 and 2030, an hourly resolution distribution grid model has been developed based on real grid data that represent Aegean, Central Anatolia, Marmara and Mediterranean regions of Turkey. These regions are the places where the first market development of EVs is expected since they are the most populated areas with the highest economic activity. There is sufficient capacity in the four selected distribution grids to integrate 10% EV in the vehicle stock by 2030.
Based on the results of this study, seven priority areas have been outlined for energy policy makers, the market regulator, distribution grid companies, the automotive industry, charging technology developers and investors, urban planners and the academia:
1) Accelerate the market for EVs and charging services in parallel,
2) Develop and implement smart charging mechanisms for load management,
3) Develop region-specific measures to avoid overloading and voltage violations,
4) Assess, develop and implement new business models for EV charging,
5) Continue the planned investments in distribution grids in line with the growth in electricity demand,
6) Utilise synergies between EV charging and renewable energy integration and energy storage,
7) Assess and plan for utilising the benefits of EV development jointly with other sectors.