Optimum electricity generation capacity mix for Turkey towards 2030
The progress of Turkey’s energy transition over the next decade will be shaped around today’s policy decisions. Despite the current power supply surplus and short-term economic downturn due to COVID-19, the rapid rise in electricity demand is expected to require new investments in the electricity system as the economy recovers its upward trend. The question on how these investments can be optimized, and which policy instruments will be most appropriate in doing so remains open.
In this study, optimum capacity development is modeled for the period between 2020 and 2030 under five different scenarios and how different policy choices can play a role in achieving energy goals. The aim here is to contribute to the formulation of a long-term energy system planning strategy for Turkey. The analysis includes the impact of different scenarios on system cost, market prices, trade balance and carbon dioxide emissions.